El Niño conditions developed in May, with warmer surface waters and weaker trade winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This isn’t a surprise—the chance of El Niño developing this year has been elevated since early last winter—but this is still a very interesting event! Lots to say, so let’s get to it, Q & A-style.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a pattern of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific that lasts for many months in a row. The location of warmer water changes where thunderstorm activity sets up in the tropics, with ripple effects all over the world, shifting jet streams and storm tracks.
Why do we care so much?
Some of the recent discussion around El Niño makes it sound a little bit like it’s a catastrophe that’s being unleashed upon the Earth. However, it’s really more of an opportunity—an early look at where we might see weather and climate extremes. Extremes happen every year, but when a strong El Niño event comes along, we have more of a chance to prepare for them. Since El Niño can be predicted many months in advance, and we know how El Niño changes global atmospheric circulation, knowing it’s coming allows us to anticipate and guard against potential impacts such as floods, drought, or temperature extremes.
Rain and snow prediction from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble for January 2026.
But El Niño is definitely bad news for some things, right?
Yes, particularly areas where sea temperatures change a lot due to El Niño, such as the Galapagos Islands. El Niño leads to reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and can have profound impacts on the marine food web, endangering animals ranging from anchovies to penguins. Also, El Niño years can see lots of coral bleaching in the tropical Pacific.
Sea surface temperature prediction from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble for November 2026.
Ugh! Any good news?
El Niño increases wind shear—the change in wind direction and strength at height—over the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear makes it harder for hurricanes to form and grow, so El Niño is a major factor in NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook. This year, the outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-average season (but always be prepared anyway!). Another upside to El Niño’s tendency to shift rainfall patterns is the potential for alleviation of severe drought conditions in the Southeast US.
So what’s going to happen?
NOAA’s forecast team predicts that El Niño will strengthen through the summer and fall, potentially joining just a few other years in our record as a very strong event. In fact, the chance of very strong (primary El Niño-monitoring index, the RONI, of greater than 2.0 ºC) is about 63%.
Don’t you mean “super?”
Being a scientist means I must point out that “super” isn’t a technical category we use. That said, it’s grown on me! Especially if this event meets or exceeds the peak levels seen in previous El Niño years, maybe we will need language to differentiate it.
What else should I know?
My editor said I had to keep this short, so there are lots of things I didn’t get to cover! In coming months, I’ll dig into how El Niño (and La Niña, which I didn’t even get to mention in this article) change weather and climate around the world, why this forecast is unusual, how we measure El Niño, and many other topics. I’ll also have a discussion board, once I figure out the technical side.
Hey, wait—is this the ENSO Blog?
No, it is not. NOAA’s ENSO Blog was a team effort that posted from 2014–2025. I was the lead writer for the ENSO Blog, often covering the monthly outlook. This new series, hosted at my home institution of the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, is independent, and comments are my own perspective. I’m looking forward to writing about subseasonal through decadal prediction, ENSO science, and a broad range of subjects. If you have suggestions or questions, drop me an email!
